China's TOPCon cell prices rise due to tightened downstream regulations

Dow Jones OPIS reported in its latest global solar market report that China's FOB TOPCon M10 cell prices rose 1.04% to $0.0387/W this week, with quotes ranging from $0.0362 to $0.0401/W. Since their low in early July, TOPCon cell prices have risen 24.4%.

Industry sources indicate that cell prices are tracking module prices, with market expectations of a potential price floor and stricter production regulations influencing price trends.

It is understood that industry associations and government departments plan to introduce a legally binding module price floor in the fourth quarter of 2025, expected to be RMB 0.759 per watt (equivalent to $0.098/W, including VAT rebate, FOB). As a result of this measure, some expect module prices to gradually strengthen before November, driving a short-term rise in cell prices.

Sources added that regulatory enforcement is currently primarily focused on the upstream sector, while cell and module production remains under relatively weak regulation, resulting in slow price adjustments downstream.

In addition to price controls, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has also strengthened the enforcement of production quotas. A market insider revealed that a major 210R cell manufacturer was summoned by authorities for significant overproduction and ordered to cut production.

Another industry insider familiar with the matter stated that the industry association had issued annual production quotas to manufacturers last year, strictly breaking them down into quarterly targets. The company failed to meet the limits set for the third quarter of 2025, drawing regulatory scrutiny.

The tightening of regulations comes amidst the recent joint release of the "2025-2026 Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation. The plan calls for maintaining an average annual revenue growth of at least 5%, promoting high-quality development in the photovoltaic, module, and lithium battery industries, and curbing low-price competition and disorderly capacity expansion.

Despite this, spot demand for cell products in China remains sluggish, and the earlier buying frenzy fueled by market rumors has gradually subsided. Rumors that China might cut or eliminate its 9% export tax rebate fueled a surge in purchases in August, but that momentum has now ended.

Industry insiders noted that purchasing activity in the export market returned to "normal" levels last week, following recent rumors that the policy adjustment may be delayed.

Meanwhile, cell manufacturers are facing a severe profit squeeze. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association stated that while overseas cell demand remains stable, silicon wafer producers continue to demand price increases due to high polysilicon costs.

In the module market, multiple industry sources pointed to higher-than-expected inventory levels as one of the main factors suppressing downstream price momentum, leaving them trapped between rising cell costs and stagnant module prices.